Scenario Analysis

Q: What is bear/base/bull IPO scenario analysis?

Bear, base, and bull scenarios model three distinct outcomes for a company's IPO exit. The bear case represents a challenging market environment with headwinds — lower revenue multiples, compressed growth, and reduced investor appetite. The base case reflects the most probable outcome given current market conditions and company trajectory. The bull case models an upside scenario where growth exceeds expectations, market timing is favorable, and the company commands premium multiples.

Q: How are IPO valuations modeled in the scenario analysis?

The scenario analysis uses revenue multiples benchmarked against comparable public companies in the same sector, adjusted for growth rate, margin profile, and market conditions. It also incorporates comparable IPO transaction data from the past 24 months, dilution analysis from known cap tables, and sector-specific premium or discount factors. All valuations are estimates labeled accordingly.

Q: Why is the bear case free but base and bull require premium?

The bear case provides meaningful downside context that helps investors understand risk — available to all users. Base and bull scenarios involve deeper analysis including proprietary comparable transaction data, revenue multiple ranges, and return modeling that require significant research resources. These are included in TechStackIPO's premium subscription.

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Run bear / base / bull IPO exit scenarios for any pre-IPO company

Bear

Headwinds scenario: compressed multiples, market downturn, slower growth, reduced investor appetite.

Free

Base

Expected outcome: growth meets consensus, market conditions are neutral, typical sector multiples apply.

Verified Premium

Bull

Upside scenario: outperformance, premium positioning, favorable IPO window, and strong investor demand.

Verified Premium

Premium required for base and bull scenarios. Bear case is free for all users. Upgrade to Premium to unlock full three-scenario modeling with comparable transaction data.

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Base and bull scenarios require a Premium subscription